Since the beginning of the week, the National Meteorological Service of CONAGUA and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began to monitor the first zone of instability in the waters of the Mexican Pacific, almost a thousand km south of the coasts of Michoacán and Jalisco, due to as numerical models resolve a possible cyclonic formation later this week.
This system could be the 90E disturbance, embedded over the Intertropical Convergence Zone, moving west-northwest with a 20% probability of being a cyclone, but it could increase between Thursday and Friday. After the heat wave, Mexicans are anxious to the arrival of the rains that refresh the country since temperatures above 40 degrees have been registered in at least 12 states of the Mexican territory.
The disturbance is located to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec where a tropical cyclone can be born towards this weekend, being for now also 20% probable in its evolution with a parallel movement and distant from the coasts.
However, this system looks more promising in terms of rainfall, as it comes from a tropical wave that is currently crossing Central America. Entities such as Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero can receive heavy rains and storms from this Thursday and especially on the weekend. For this Wednesday, the third heat wave will continue, generating a hot to very hot environment in much of the Mexican Republic. Likewise, low pressure channels will persist, one will extend over the north and west of Mexico and the second over the southeast of the country and the Yucatan Peninsula, both channels will interact with instability at high levels of the atmosphere, causing heavy punctual rains in areas from Oaxaca and Chiapas; in addition to low rain in areas of the north, south and southeast of the country, including the Yucatan Peninsula. All rains will be accompanied by thunderstorms and possible hail fall.
A dry line over the northeast of the national territory, in interaction with the subtropical jet stream, will cause strong winds with possible dust storms over the northwest, north and northeast of the Mexican territory. Finally, the new tropical wave number 3 will move to the south of the Yucatan Peninsula, causing cloudy landslides towards the Mexican southeast.
From Thursday until next Saturday, an anticyclonic circulation at medium levels of the atmosphere will maintain the third heat wave over the national territory, including the Valley of Mexico, with maximum temperatures that could exceed 40 °C in 24 entities of the Republic Mexican.
On the other hand, low pressure channels, a dry line, divergence in height, the ingress of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, in addition to the subtropical jet stream, will cause rains accompanied by thunderstorm in the north, west, south, and southeast of the country, including the Yucatan Peninsula, with occasional heavy rains and possible hail in Coahuila, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas, as well as strong winds with possible dust storms in the northwest, north, northeast, and center from Mexico.
Likewise, a tropical wave will move off the coasts of Chiapas and Oaxaca, associated with a zone of instability with a probability of cyclonic development, increasing the potential for rainfall in the southeast and south of the national territory.
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MEXICAN REPUBLIC
Maximum temperatures above 45 °C: Sinaloa, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas.
Maximum temperatures from 40 to 45 °C: Sonora, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Morelos, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatán.
Maximum temperatures from 35 to 40 °C: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Querétaro, State of Mexico (southwest), Puebla and Quintana Roo.
Minimum temperatures from 0 to 5 °C: mountainous areas of Baja California and Chihuahua.
RAIN FORECAST IN THE MEXICAN TERRITORY
Intervals of light rain with heavy punctual rains (25 to 50 mm): Oaxaca and Chiapas.
Intervals of light rain (5 to 25 mm): Durango, Zacatecas, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Guerrero and Veracruz (south).
Isolated rains (0.1 to 5 mm): Nayarit, Jalisco, Tabasco, Campeche and Quintana Roo.
WIND FORECAST FOR THE MEXICAN TERRITORY
Wind with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h and dust storms: Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas.
Wind with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h and possible dust storms: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, San Luis Potosí, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Mexico City, Guanajuato, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
HOW DOES EL NIÑO AFFECT CYCLONE SEASON?
CONAGUA agrees with the National Meteorological Organization that it is very possible that ‘El Niño’ will be present for the month of May, which would cause havoc until the end of the year. If the forecast is correct, ‘El Niño’ will cause the rainy season to be much longer and for some areas it will extend until December.
The phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have a significant effect on the cyclone season in Mexico. During an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, which can increase the number of tropical cyclones in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, including Mexico.
This increase in the number of tropical cyclones can be especially noticeable in the Pacific coast of Mexico, which includes the states of Guerrero, Oaxaca, Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit. During an El Niño episode, these states may experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones.
On the other hand, during a La Niña episode, which is characterized by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones can be observed in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, including Mexico.
It is important to note that the effect of ENSO on the cyclone season can vary depending on the intensity of the phenomenon and other environmental factors. Therefore, it is important that authorities and the public are attentive to weather forecasts and alerts issued by local and national weather services during the cyclone season.
ADRIÁN, THE NAME OF THE FIRST ATLANTIC CYCLONE
The first cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico will be called Adrián.
The following will be called: Beatriz, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, Jova, Kenneth, Lidia, Max, Norma, Otis, Pilar, Ramón, Selma, Todd, Verónica, Xina and Zelda.
Hurricanes are classified into five categories, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. This scale is based on the hurricane’s wind speed and provides a general guide to the potential damage a hurricane can cause.
The hurricane categories are as follows:
Category 1: Sustained winds of 74 to 95 miles per hour (119 to 153 kilometers per hour). These hurricanes generally cause minor damage to structures and trees, but can cause coastal flooding and power outages.
Category 2: Sustained winds of 96 to 110 miles per hour (154 to 177 kilometers per hour). These hurricanes can cause moderate damage to structures, trees, and power lines, as well as coastal flooding.
Category 3: Sustained winds of 111 to 129 miles per hour (178 to 208 kilometers per hour). These hurricanes are considered major and can cause significant damage to structures, trees, and power lines, as well as coastal flooding.
Category 4: Sustained winds of 130 to 156 miles per hour (209 to 251 kilometers per hour). These Hurricanes are considered extremely dangerous and can cause catastrophic damage to structures, trees, and power lines, as well as coastal flooding.
Category 5: Sustained winds greater than 157 miles per hour (252 kilometers per hour). These hurricanes are considered the most dangerous and can cause catastrophic damage to all types of structures, trees and power lines, as well as coastal flooding.
It is important to note that the category of a hurricane is based solely on wind speed and does not take into account other factors such as rainfall, storm surge, and storm intensity.
WHAT TO DO IN CASE OF HURRICANE?
If you are in a hurricane prone area and a hurricane watch is issued, it is important to take precautionary measures to protect yourself, your family and your property. Here are some actions that can be taken before, during, and after a hurricane:
Before the hurricane:
• Be attentive to alerts and forecasts issued by local and national authorities.
• Have basic supplies on hand, such as non-perishable food, drinking water, medicine, and flashlights with extra batteries.
• Prepare your home by securing doors, windows, and roofs, and remove any loose items outside that could become projectiles during the hurricane.
• Have an evacuation plan in case it is necessary to evacuate your home.
During the hurricane:
• Stay inside your home or shelter and away from windows and doors.
• Listen to the alerts and forecasts issued by the authorities and follow their instructions.
• If you are in an area prone to flooding, evacuate the area as soon as possible.
• Keep a supply of drinking water and non-perishable food in case of power outages.
After the hurricane:
• Listen to alerts and forecasts issued by local and national authorities for information about the safety of your area.
• Do not attempt to return home until you have made sure it is safe to do so.
• Inspect your property for damage and take pictures of any damage for your insurance claim.
• If necessary, request emergency assistance from local authorities.
Source: Vanguardia
